🟡 JUST MARKET BETA
Does the Stochastic Oversold strategy actually work?
We tested it honestly on BTC 1h over 2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18, sized at 1% risk per trade on a $10,000 account. Here is exactly what happened — the real chart, every trade, no cherry-picking, no look-ahead.
“Buy when Stochastic crosses up out of oversold (20) — the classic "momentum turning" entry.”— what the internet tells you
The rule we tested
Go long when Stochastic %K crosses above 20, take profit +8%, stop −4%.
BTC · 1h
1% risk / trade
$10,000 start
2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18
0.20% round-trip cost
The honest result
Return on $10k
+7%
+$688 net
Buy & hold BTC
+113%
doing nothing beat it
Win rate
36%
202 trades
Profit factor
1.05
gross win / gross loss
Avg win / loss
+$212 / −$115
per trade
Expectancy
+$3
avg per trade
Max drawdown
−16%
worst peak-to-trough
Worst losing streak
11
losses in a row
Every trade, on the chart 202 trades on BTC 1h — green = winner, red = loser
BTC price
Winning trade entry
Losing trade entry
Year by year strategy P&L vs how the asset itself moved
| Year | Strategy P&L | Win rate | Trades | BTC that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +$555 | 50% | 12 | +41% |
| 2024 | +$994 | 39% | 83 | +120% |
| 2025 | +$66 | 36% | 64 | -7% |
| 2026 | −$927 | 28% | 43 | -27% |
Full trade log all 202 trades, nothing hidden
| # | Entry (UTC) | Side | Entry → Exit | Held | P&L | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023-07-20 17:00 | long | $29,756 → $28,551 | 286h | −$104 | sl 4pct |
| 2 | 2023-08-02 15:00 | long | $29,335 → $28,147 | 360h | −$103 | sl 4pct |
| 3 | 2023-08-17 16:00 | long | $27,953 → $26,822 | 5h | −$102 | sl 4pct |
| 4 | 2023-08-17 21:00 | long | $26,244 → $25,182 | 593h | −$101 | sl 4pct |
| 5 | 2023-09-11 16:00 | long | $25,184 → $27,185 | 163h | +$188 | tp 8pct |
| 6 | 2023-09-18 19:00 | long | $26,817 → $28,948 | 666h | +$192 | tp 8pct |
| 7 | 2023-10-17 05:00 | long | $28,224 → $30,466 | 140h | +$196 | tp 8pct |
| 8 | 2023-10-26 12:00 | long | $34,288 → $37,012 | 334h | +$199 | tp 8pct |
| 9 | 2023-11-11 09:00 | long | $37,082 → $35,581 | 81h | −$108 | sl 4pct |
| 10 | 2023-11-16 09:00 | long | $37,401 → $35,887 | 10h | −$106 | sl 4pct |
| 11 | 2023-11-16 19:00 | long | $35,960 → $38,818 | 351h | +$199 | tp 8pct |
| 12 | 2023-12-05 08:00 | long | $41,649 → $44,958 | 664h | +$203 | tp 8pct |
| 13 | 2024-01-02 18:00 | long | $45,225 → $43,394 | 18h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 14 | 2024-01-03 12:00 | long | $42,818 → $46,221 | 126h | +$205 | tp 8pct |
| 15 | 2024-01-10 09:00 | long | $45,703 → $43,853 | 55h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 16 | 2024-01-12 17:00 | long | $43,864 → $42,088 | 5h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 17 | 2024-01-12 22:00 | long | $42,543 → $40,821 | 141h | −$108 | sl 4pct |
| 18 | 2024-01-18 21:00 | long | $41,148 → $39,483 | 94h | −$107 | sl 4pct |
| 19 | 2024-01-23 00:00 | long | $39,888 → $43,057 | 160h | +$200 | tp 8pct |
| 20 | 2024-01-30 14:00 | long | $43,486 → $46,941 | 237h | +$204 | tp 8pct |
| 21 | 2024-02-10 11:00 | long | $47,200 → $50,950 | 94h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 22 | 2024-02-15 18:00 | long | $52,029 → $56,163 | 272h | +$212 | tp 8pct |
| 23 | 2024-02-29 19:00 | long | $61,718 → $66,622 | 92h | +$217 | tp 8pct |
| 24 | 2024-03-05 19:00 | long | $61,513 → $66,401 | 10h | +$221 | tp 8pct |
| 25 | 2024-03-07 07:00 | long | $66,477 → $71,759 | 97h | +$225 | tp 8pct |
| 26 | 2024-03-12 15:00 | long | $71,828 → $68,921 | 2h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 27 | 2024-03-12 17:00 | long | $71,197 → $68,315 | 57h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 28 | 2024-03-15 06:00 | long | $68,729 → $65,947 | 3h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 29 | 2024-03-15 09:00 | long | $67,870 → $65,122 | 38h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 30 | 2024-03-17 01:00 | long | $66,233 → $63,552 | 55h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 31 | 2024-03-19 09:00 | long | $64,200 → $61,601 | 14h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 32 | 2024-03-20 00:00 | long | $63,314 → $60,751 | 5h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 33 | 2024-03-20 06:00 | long | $61,810 → $66,722 | 14h | +$213 | tp 8pct |
| 34 | 2024-03-21 20:00 | long | $65,553 → $62,899 | 17h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 35 | 2024-03-22 15:00 | long | $63,934 → $69,014 | 71h | +$215 | tp 8pct |
| 36 | 2024-03-26 20:00 | long | $69,911 → $67,081 | 150h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 37 | 2024-04-02 14:00 | long | $65,770 → $70,996 | 138h | +$217 | tp 8pct |
| 38 | 2024-04-09 01:00 | long | $71,362 → $68,473 | 14h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 39 | 2024-04-09 17:00 | long | $68,918 → $66,129 | 73h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 40 | 2024-04-13 02:00 | long | $66,558 → $63,864 | 17h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 41 | 2024-04-15 15:00 | long | $64,562 → $61,949 | 13h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 42 | 2024-04-16 04:00 | long | $62,500 → $59,970 | 35h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 43 | 2024-04-17 17:00 | long | $61,278 → $66,147 | 108h | +$210 | tp 8pct |
| 44 | 2024-04-23 08:00 | long | $66,215 → $63,535 | 36h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 45 | 2024-04-24 21:00 | long | $64,408 → $61,801 | 112h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 46 | 2024-04-29 14:00 | long | $62,846 → $60,302 | 26h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 47 | 2024-04-30 21:00 | long | $60,176 → $57,740 | 10h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 48 | 2024-05-01 10:00 | long | $57,777 → $62,368 | 58h | +$206 | tp 8pct |
| 49 | 2024-05-05 01:00 | long | $63,320 → $60,757 | 105h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 50 | 2024-05-09 11:00 | long | $61,064 → $65,916 | 152h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 51 | 2024-05-16 15:00 | long | $65,842 → $71,074 | 104h | +$212 | tp 8pct |
| 52 | 2024-05-21 20:00 | long | $69,787 → $66,962 | 46h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 53 | 2024-05-23 20:00 | long | $67,884 → $65,136 | 524h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 54 | 2024-06-14 18:00 | long | $65,526 → $62,873 | 222h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 55 | 2024-06-24 01:00 | long | $63,307 → $60,744 | 8h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 56 | 2024-06-24 18:00 | long | $60,416 → $57,970 | 224h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 57 | 2024-07-04 02:00 | long | $58,970 → $56,583 | 24h | −$108 | sl 4pct |
| 58 | 2024-07-05 05:00 | long | $54,820 → $59,176 | 119h | +$203 | tp 8pct |
| 59 | 2024-07-10 22:00 | long | $57,715 → $62,301 | 100h | +$207 | tp 8pct |
| 60 | 2024-07-16 09:00 | long | $63,194 → $68,215 | 132h | +$211 | tp 8pct |
| 61 | 2024-07-22 09:00 | long | $67,431 → $64,702 | 64h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 62 | 2024-07-25 08:00 | long | $64,364 → $69,478 | 90h | +$213 | tp 8pct |
| 63 | 2024-07-29 18:00 | long | $67,434 → $64,704 | 50h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 64 | 2024-08-01 05:00 | long | $64,310 → $61,707 | 40h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 65 | 2024-08-03 03:00 | long | $61,882 → $59,377 | 35h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 66 | 2024-08-04 18:00 | long | $58,756 → $56,377 | 6h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 67 | 2024-08-05 01:00 | long | $54,424 → $52,221 | 4h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 68 | 2024-08-05 06:00 | long | $51,588 → $49,500 | 6h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 69 | 2024-08-05 13:00 | long | $51,953 → $56,082 | 12h | +$204 | tp 8pct |
| 70 | 2024-08-07 16:00 | long | $56,136 → $60,596 | 29h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 71 | 2024-08-09 13:00 | long | $60,454 → $58,006 | 59h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 72 | 2024-08-12 02:00 | long | $58,724 → $56,347 | 90h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 73 | 2024-08-15 21:00 | long | $57,637 → $62,216 | 185h | +$207 | tp 8pct |
| 74 | 2024-08-24 22:00 | long | $63,847 → $61,263 | 71h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 75 | 2024-08-28 08:00 | long | $59,225 → $56,828 | 161h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 76 | 2024-09-04 01:00 | long | $56,779 → $54,481 | 61h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 77 | 2024-09-06 21:00 | long | $53,785 → $58,059 | 72h | +$205 | tp 8pct |
| 78 | 2024-09-10 16:00 | long | $56,812 → $61,326 | 199h | +$209 | tp 8pct |
| 79 | 2024-09-20 14:00 | long | $63,047 → $60,495 | 270h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 80 | 2024-10-01 21:00 | long | $61,162 → $66,022 | 305h | +$211 | tp 8pct |
| 81 | 2024-10-15 07:00 | long | $65,684 → $70,904 | 331h | +$215 | tp 8pct |
| 82 | 2024-10-30 13:00 | long | $72,022 → $69,106 | 37h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 83 | 2024-11-01 02:00 | long | $69,635 → $66,816 | 91h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 84 | 2024-11-04 22:00 | long | $67,953 → $73,352 | 29h | +$215 | tp 8pct |
| 85 | 2024-11-07 08:00 | long | $75,244 → $81,223 | 86h | +$219 | tp 8pct |
| 86 | 2024-11-13 07:00 | long | $87,427 → $94,374 | 174h | +$223 | tp 8pct |
| 87 | 2024-11-22 15:00 | long | $98,765 → $94,767 | 72h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 88 | 2024-11-25 15:00 | long | $96,102 → $92,212 | 20h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 89 | 2024-11-26 11:00 | long | $92,446 → $99,792 | 207h | +$223 | tp 8pct |
| 90 | 2024-12-05 17:00 | long | $101,464 → $97,357 | 5h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 91 | 2024-12-05 22:00 | long | $96,620 → $104,297 | 241h | +$225 | tp 8pct |
| 92 | 2024-12-16 14:00 | long | $105,585 → $101,311 | 54h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 93 | 2024-12-19 02:00 | long | $100,522 → $96,453 | 17h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 94 | 2024-12-19 21:00 | long | $97,401 → $93,458 | 14h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 95 | 2024-12-20 12:00 | long | $93,943 → $101,408 | 411h | +$222 | tp 8pct |
| 96 | 2025-01-07 08:00 | long | $101,923 → $97,797 | 7h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 97 | 2025-01-08 00:00 | long | $97,257 → $93,320 | 17h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 98 | 2025-01-08 17:00 | long | $94,005 → $90,199 | 117h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 99 | 2025-01-13 14:00 | long | $91,831 → $99,128 | 48h | +$220 | tp 8pct |
| 100 | 2025-01-16 09:00 | long | $99,175 → $107,055 | 93h | +$224 | tp 8pct |
| 101 | 2025-01-21 02:00 | long | $102,573 → $98,421 | 149h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 102 | 2025-01-27 09:00 | long | $99,417 → $95,392 | 159h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 103 | 2025-02-03 05:00 | long | $94,213 → $101,699 | 14h | +$224 | tp 8pct |
| 104 | 2025-02-04 06:00 | long | $99,378 → $95,355 | 135h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 105 | 2025-02-09 22:00 | long | $95,823 → $91,945 | 361h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 106 | 2025-02-25 01:00 | long | $92,032 → $88,307 | 6h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 107 | 2025-02-25 11:00 | long | $89,265 → $85,651 | 27h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 108 | 2025-02-26 14:00 | long | $87,594 → $84,048 | 4h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 109 | 2025-02-26 20:00 | long | $84,379 → $80,964 | 29h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 110 | 2025-02-28 09:00 | long | $80,332 → $86,715 | 54h | +$214 | tp 8pct |
| 111 | 2025-03-02 15:00 | long | $87,460 → $94,410 | 2h | +$218 | tp 8pct |
| 112 | 2025-03-03 10:00 | long | $92,567 → $88,820 | 8h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 113 | 2025-03-04 05:00 | long | $84,282 → $90,979 | 44h | +$220 | tp 8pct |
| 114 | 2025-03-06 15:00 | long | $90,825 → $87,149 | 9h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 115 | 2025-03-07 01:00 | long | $88,257 → $84,684 | 57h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 116 | 2025-03-09 20:00 | long | $83,016 → $79,656 | 18h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 117 | 2025-03-10 19:00 | long | $79,059 → $85,341 | 215h | +$218 | tp 8pct |
| 118 | 2025-03-20 11:00 | long | $85,493 → $82,032 | 216h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 119 | 2025-03-29 13:00 | long | $82,843 → $79,490 | 197h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 120 | 2025-04-06 23:00 | long | $78,415 → $75,241 | 7h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 121 | 2025-04-07 08:00 | long | $76,258 → $82,318 | 58h | +$215 | tp 8pct |
| 122 | 2025-04-10 09:00 | long | $82,042 → $78,721 | 6h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 123 | 2025-04-10 16:00 | long | $79,453 → $85,766 | 52h | +$217 | tp 8pct |
| 124 | 2025-04-13 08:00 | long | $84,674 → $91,402 | 226h | +$221 | tp 8pct |
| 125 | 2025-04-23 15:00 | long | $93,180 → $100,584 | 360h | +$226 | tp 8pct |
| 126 | 2025-05-09 17:00 | long | $103,235 → $111,438 | 298h | +$230 | tp 8pct |
| 127 | 2025-05-23 05:00 | long | $110,867 → $106,379 | 153h | −$124 | sl 4pct |
| 128 | 2025-05-29 21:00 | long | $106,478 → $102,167 | 166h | −$123 | sl 4pct |
| 129 | 2025-06-05 21:00 | long | $101,556 → $109,626 | 96h | +$230 | tp 8pct |
| 130 | 2025-06-10 15:00 | long | $109,027 → $104,613 | 57h | −$124 | sl 4pct |
| 131 | 2025-06-13 03:00 | long | $104,303 → $100,081 | 227h | −$123 | sl 4pct |
| 132 | 2025-06-22 16:00 | long | $99,657 → $107,575 | 69h | +$229 | tp 8pct |
| 133 | 2025-06-26 14:00 | long | $107,450 → $115,988 | 343h | +$234 | tp 8pct |
| 134 | 2025-07-12 16:00 | long | $117,211 → $112,466 | 506h | −$126 | sl 4pct |
| 135 | 2025-08-02 20:00 | long | $112,811 → $121,775 | 198h | +$236 | tp 8pct |
| 136 | 2025-08-11 21:00 | long | $118,759 → $113,952 | 185h | −$127 | sl 4pct |
| 137 | 2025-08-19 20:00 | long | $113,590 → $108,991 | 148h | −$126 | sl 4pct |
| 138 | 2025-08-26 01:00 | long | $109,915 → $112,553 | 720h | +$69 | force close horizon |
| 139 | 2025-09-25 02:00 | long | $112,903 → $121,874 | 205h | +$237 | tp 8pct |
| 140 | 2025-10-04 19:00 | long | $121,983 → $117,045 | 144h | −$128 | sl 4pct |
| 141 | 2025-10-10 21:00 | long | $113,239 → $108,655 | 138h | −$126 | sl 4pct |
| 142 | 2025-10-16 16:00 | long | $109,252 → $104,829 | 16h | −$125 | sl 4pct |
| 143 | 2025-10-17 10:00 | long | $104,762 → $113,087 | 101h | +$234 | tp 8pct |
| 144 | 2025-10-22 11:00 | long | $107,538 → $116,083 | 116h | +$239 | tp 8pct |
| 145 | 2025-10-27 15:00 | long | $114,973 → $110,319 | 51h | −$129 | sl 4pct |
| 146 | 2025-10-30 00:00 | long | $110,552 → $106,077 | 111h | −$127 | sl 4pct |
| 147 | 2025-11-03 16:00 | long | $106,689 → $102,370 | 24h | −$126 | sl 4pct |
| 148 | 2025-11-04 18:00 | long | $101,369 → $97,266 | 226h | −$125 | sl 4pct |
| 149 | 2025-11-14 06:00 | long | $97,565 → $93,616 | 59h | −$124 | sl 4pct |
| 150 | 2025-11-16 17:00 | long | $94,365 → $90,545 | 34h | −$122 | sl 4pct |
| 151 | 2025-11-18 07:00 | long | $90,500 → $86,837 | 58h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 152 | 2025-11-20 22:00 | long | $88,064 → $84,499 | 9h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 153 | 2025-11-21 07:00 | long | $84,042 → $80,640 | 5h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 154 | 2025-11-21 12:00 | long | $83,284 → $89,902 | 125h | +$222 | tp 8pct |
| 155 | 2025-11-28 18:00 | long | $90,819 → $87,143 | 54h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 156 | 2025-12-01 08:00 | long | $86,855 → $93,756 | 46h | +$224 | tp 8pct |
| 157 | 2025-12-04 12:00 | long | $92,998 → $89,234 | 28h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 158 | 2025-12-05 17:00 | long | $89,328 → $85,712 | 240h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 159 | 2025-12-15 18:00 | long | $86,186 → $93,034 | 487h | +$223 | tp 8pct |
| 160 | 2026-01-06 09:00 | long | $93,472 → $89,689 | 46h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 161 | 2026-01-08 07:00 | long | $90,535 → $97,729 | 157h | +$225 | tp 8pct |
| 162 | 2026-01-15 21:00 | long | $95,583 → $91,714 | 104h | −$122 | sl 4pct |
| 163 | 2026-01-20 10:00 | long | $91,258 → $87,564 | 30h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 164 | 2026-01-21 17:00 | long | $87,926 → $84,367 | 190h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 165 | 2026-01-29 16:00 | long | $85,279 → $81,827 | 9h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 166 | 2026-01-30 01:00 | long | $82,471 → $79,132 | 40h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 167 | 2026-01-31 18:00 | long | $78,056 → $74,896 | 33h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 168 | 2026-02-03 03:00 | long | $78,749 → $75,561 | 14h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 169 | 2026-02-03 19:00 | long | $74,927 → $71,894 | 27h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 170 | 2026-02-04 23:00 | long | $73,167 → $70,205 | 6h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 171 | 2026-02-05 06:00 | long | $70,952 → $68,080 | 9h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 172 | 2026-02-05 16:00 | long | $68,302 → $65,537 | 2h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 173 | 2026-02-06 00:00 | long | $63,500 → $68,545 | 14h | +$205 | tp 8pct |
| 174 | 2026-02-07 08:00 | long | $68,514 → $65,740 | 103h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 175 | 2026-02-11 15:00 | long | $66,518 → $63,826 | 293h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 176 | 2026-02-23 20:00 | long | $64,481 → $69,605 | 49h | +$205 | tp 8pct |
| 177 | 2026-02-26 09:00 | long | $68,588 → $65,812 | 27h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 178 | 2026-02-27 13:00 | long | $66,270 → $63,587 | 17h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 179 | 2026-02-28 07:00 | long | $63,819 → $68,891 | 56h | +$204 | tp 8pct |
| 180 | 2026-03-03 07:00 | long | $68,176 → $73,593 | 34h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 181 | 2026-03-05 06:00 | long | $72,547 → $69,611 | 30h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 182 | 2026-03-07 02:00 | long | $68,347 → $65,580 | 44h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 183 | 2026-03-09 00:00 | long | $66,364 → $71,638 | 39h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 184 | 2026-03-10 23:00 | long | $69,942 → $75,500 | 146h | +$212 | tp 8pct |
| 185 | 2026-03-17 07:00 | long | $74,257 → $71,251 | 31h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 186 | 2026-03-18 17:00 | long | $71,593 → $68,695 | 78h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 187 | 2026-03-22 00:00 | long | $68,941 → $66,150 | 131h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 188 | 2026-03-27 22:00 | long | $66,025 → $71,271 | 264h | +$210 | tp 8pct |
| 189 | 2026-04-08 15:00 | long | $71,306 → $76,972 | 214h | +$214 | tp 8pct |
| 190 | 2026-04-18 06:00 | long | $77,124 → $74,002 | 40h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 191 | 2026-04-20 00:00 | long | $74,276 → $80,178 | 338h | +$216 | tp 8pct |
| 192 | 2026-05-06 21:00 | long | $81,537 → $78,237 | 226h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 193 | 2026-05-16 07:00 | long | $78,369 → $75,197 | 161h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 194 | 2026-05-23 09:00 | long | $74,655 → $71,633 | 220h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 195 | 2026-06-01 16:00 | long | $71,575 → $68,678 | 22h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 196 | 2026-06-02 19:00 | long | $67,322 → $64,596 | 28h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 197 | 2026-06-04 02:00 | long | $63,230 → $60,671 | 35h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 198 | 2026-06-05 16:00 | long | $61,395 → $66,274 | 235h | +$207 | tp 8pct |
| 199 | 2026-06-16 03:00 | long | $66,155 → $63,477 | 59h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 200 | 2026-06-18 19:00 | long | $62,947 → $60,399 | 140h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 201 | 2026-06-24 19:00 | long | $59,954 → $64,718 | 476h | +$206 | tp 8pct |
| 202 | 2026-07-15 08:00 | long | $64,772 → $63,923 | 73h | −$38 | force close horizon |
What the engine flagged
- ⚠️ 1459 entry signals skipped vs 202 taken (ratio 7×). Very high ratio suggests entry conditions use STATE checks ('close > EMA 50', 'MACD line > signal') which fire on EVERY bar during a trend — most 'skipped' signals are the same trend continuing, not new opportunities. Consider replacing at least one condition with a crossing event ('MACD crosses above signal', 'price crosses above EMA') for cleaner triggers.
Verdict
🟡 JUST MARKET BETA
Made +7% — but simply holding the asset made +113%. This is beta, not edge: it only "worked" because the market went up, and underperformed doing nothing.
Build & test your own — no code, no spreadsheets
1
Describe your idea in plain English
Type it the way you'd explain it to a friend:
buy when RSI drops below 30, take profit 3%, stop loss 1.5%2
AI turns it into exact rules
The Studio compiles your words into a precise strategy — entries, exits, risk sizing, 11 indicators to combine. You can tweak every condition in the visual builder.
3
Get the honest verdict in seconds
Up to 3 years of real data through the same anti-bias engine that produced every result above — equity curve, full trade log, and flags that expose fake edges.
Think you can build a better one?
Test your own idea against the same honest engine. Plain English in, the real numbers out — chart, full trade log, and the flags that expose fake edges like this one. Free to start, no card required.
Test your strategy — free See more tests