🟡 JUST MARKET BETA
Does the RSI Oversold Bounce strategy actually work?
We tested it honestly on BTC 1h over 2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18, sized at 1% risk per trade on a $10,000 account. Here is exactly what happened — the real chart, every trade, no cherry-picking, no look-ahead.
“Buy when RSI drops below 30 — "guaranteed" bounce. The single most-taught retail signal on YouTube and TradingView.”— what the internet tells you
The rule we tested
Enter long the moment RSI(14) crosses back above 30 (leaving "oversold"), take profit +8%, stop −4%.
BTC · 1h
1% risk / trade
$10,000 start
2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18
0.20% round-trip cost
The honest result
Return on $10k
+11%
+$1,074 net
Buy & hold BTC
+113%
doing nothing beat it
Win rate
38%
142 trades
Profit factor
1.11
gross win / gross loss
Avg win / loss
+$205 / −$114
per trade
Expectancy
+$8
avg per trade
Max drawdown
−12%
worst peak-to-trough
Worst losing streak
8
losses in a row
Every trade, on the chart 142 trades on BTC 1h — green = winner, red = loser
BTC price
Winning trade entry
Losing trade entry
Year by year strategy P&L vs how the asset itself moved
| Year | Strategy P&L | Win rate | Trades | BTC that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +$259 | 44% | 9 | +41% |
| 2024 | +$662 | 39% | 57 | +120% |
| 2025 | +$612 | 40% | 45 | -7% |
| 2026 | −$459 | 32% | 31 | -27% |
Full trade log all 142 trades, nothing hidden
| # | Entry (UTC) | Side | Entry → Exit | Held | P&L | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023-07-24 10:00 | long | $29,318 → $28,131 | 581h | −$104 | sl 4pct |
| 2 | 2023-08-18 08:00 | long | $26,587 → $25,511 | 109h | −$103 | sl 4pct |
| 3 | 2023-09-01 03:00 | long | $26,081 → $25,026 | 251h | −$102 | sl 4pct |
| 4 | 2023-09-11 17:00 | long | $25,224 → $27,229 | 163h | +$190 | tp 8pct |
| 5 | 2023-09-21 11:00 | long | $26,731 → $28,855 | 602h | +$194 | tp 8pct |
| 6 | 2023-11-14 01:00 | long | $36,377 → $34,904 | 17h | −$104 | sl 4pct |
| 7 | 2023-11-14 21:00 | long | $35,611 → $38,441 | 348h | +$196 | tp 8pct |
| 8 | 2023-12-11 09:00 | long | $42,431 → $40,713 | 9h | −$105 | sl 4pct |
| 9 | 2023-12-11 22:00 | long | $41,341 → $44,626 | 506h | +$197 | tp 8pct |
| 10 | 2024-01-03 15:00 | long | $43,033 → $46,452 | 123h | +$201 | tp 8pct |
| 11 | 2024-01-13 04:00 | long | $42,877 → $41,141 | 135h | −$108 | sl 4pct |
| 12 | 2024-01-18 22:00 | long | $41,371 → $39,696 | 93h | −$107 | sl 4pct |
| 13 | 2024-01-22 20:00 | long | $40,201 → $38,574 | 18h | −$106 | sl 4pct |
| 14 | 2024-01-23 15:00 | long | $39,214 → $42,330 | 109h | +$199 | tp 8pct |
| 15 | 2024-01-31 11:00 | long | $42,647 → $46,035 | 207h | +$203 | tp 8pct |
| 16 | 2024-02-17 17:00 | long | $51,268 → $55,342 | 224h | +$207 | tp 8pct |
| 17 | 2024-03-05 20:00 | long | $61,969 → $66,893 | 12h | +$211 | tp 8pct |
| 18 | 2024-03-14 16:00 | long | $71,451 → $68,559 | 10h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 19 | 2024-03-15 06:00 | long | $68,729 → $65,947 | 3h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 20 | 2024-03-17 01:00 | long | $66,233 → $63,552 | 55h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 21 | 2024-03-19 12:00 | long | $63,691 → $61,113 | 16h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 22 | 2024-03-22 15:00 | long | $63,934 → $69,014 | 71h | +$206 | tp 8pct |
| 23 | 2024-04-01 06:00 | long | $69,681 → $66,860 | 20h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 24 | 2024-04-02 16:00 | long | $65,606 → $70,819 | 135h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 25 | 2024-04-09 19:00 | long | $69,093 → $66,296 | 71h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 26 | 2024-04-13 02:00 | long | $66,558 → $63,864 | 17h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 27 | 2024-04-13 22:00 | long | $64,290 → $61,688 | 54h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 28 | 2024-04-17 17:00 | long | $61,278 → $66,147 | 108h | +$206 | tp 8pct |
| 29 | 2024-04-24 17:00 | long | $64,895 → $62,268 | 106h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 30 | 2024-04-29 04:00 | long | $62,533 → $60,002 | 37h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 31 | 2024-04-30 20:00 | long | $59,963 → $57,536 | 11h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 32 | 2024-05-01 10:00 | long | $57,777 → $62,368 | 58h | +$203 | tp 8pct |
| 33 | 2024-05-09 00:00 | long | $61,407 → $66,287 | 163h | +$207 | tp 8pct |
| 34 | 2024-05-19 20:00 | long | $66,155 → $71,412 | 27h | +$211 | tp 8pct |
| 35 | 2024-05-23 15:00 | long | $68,164 → $65,404 | 529h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 36 | 2024-06-14 18:00 | long | $65,526 → $62,873 | 222h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 37 | 2024-06-24 01:00 | long | $63,307 → $60,744 | 8h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 38 | 2024-06-24 13:00 | long | $61,576 → $59,084 | 6h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 39 | 2024-06-24 21:00 | long | $60,096 → $57,664 | 227h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 40 | 2024-07-04 15:00 | long | $58,139 → $55,786 | 11h | −$108 | sl 4pct |
| 41 | 2024-07-05 09:00 | long | $54,539 → $58,872 | 115h | +$202 | tp 8pct |
| 42 | 2024-07-25 04:00 | long | $64,233 → $69,337 | 57h | +$206 | tp 8pct |
| 43 | 2024-07-29 17:00 | long | $67,023 → $64,310 | 55h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 44 | 2024-08-01 05:00 | long | $64,310 → $61,707 | 40h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 45 | 2024-08-03 02:00 | long | $61,435 → $58,948 | 37h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 46 | 2024-08-04 18:00 | long | $58,756 → $56,377 | 6h | −$108 | sl 4pct |
| 47 | 2024-08-05 13:00 | long | $51,953 → $56,082 | 12h | +$202 | tp 8pct |
| 48 | 2024-08-12 02:00 | long | $58,724 → $56,347 | 90h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 49 | 2024-08-15 21:00 | long | $57,637 → $62,216 | 185h | +$204 | tp 8pct |
| 50 | 2024-08-27 17:00 | long | $61,948 → $59,440 | 5h | −$110 | sl 4pct |
| 51 | 2024-08-28 08:00 | long | $59,225 → $56,828 | 161h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 52 | 2024-09-04 07:00 | long | $56,743 → $54,446 | 55h | −$107 | sl 4pct |
| 53 | 2024-09-06 21:00 | long | $53,785 → $58,059 | 72h | +$201 | tp 8pct |
| 54 | 2024-09-16 05:00 | long | $58,666 → $63,328 | 81h | +$205 | tp 8pct |
| 55 | 2024-09-30 07:00 | long | $64,576 → $61,962 | 32h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 56 | 2024-10-02 01:00 | long | $61,528 → $59,037 | 209h | −$109 | sl 4pct |
| 57 | 2024-10-10 19:00 | long | $59,729 → $64,475 | 81h | +$205 | tp 8pct |
| 58 | 2024-10-21 17:00 | long | $67,573 → $72,942 | 192h | +$209 | tp 8pct |
| 59 | 2024-10-31 17:00 | long | $70,864 → $67,995 | 57h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 60 | 2024-11-03 04:00 | long | $68,614 → $74,066 | 71h | +$211 | tp 8pct |
| 61 | 2024-11-24 16:00 | long | $96,548 → $92,640 | 30h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 62 | 2024-11-25 22:00 | long | $94,486 → $101,993 | 220h | +$213 | tp 8pct |
| 63 | 2024-12-18 06:00 | long | $103,803 → $99,601 | 19h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 64 | 2024-12-19 02:00 | long | $100,522 → $96,453 | 17h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 65 | 2024-12-19 21:00 | long | $97,401 → $93,458 | 14h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 66 | 2024-12-20 12:00 | long | $93,943 → $101,408 | 411h | +$210 | tp 8pct |
| 67 | 2025-01-08 00:00 | long | $97,257 → $93,320 | 17h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 68 | 2025-01-08 18:00 | long | $94,243 → $90,428 | 114h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 69 | 2025-01-13 14:00 | long | $91,831 → $99,128 | 48h | +$210 | tp 8pct |
| 70 | 2025-01-20 01:00 | long | $100,722 → $108,725 | 5h | +$214 | tp 8pct |
| 71 | 2025-01-27 12:00 | long | $100,615 → $96,542 | 153h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 72 | 2025-02-03 05:00 | long | $94,213 → $101,699 | 14h | +$216 | tp 8pct |
| 73 | 2025-02-11 21:00 | long | $96,385 → $92,484 | 313h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 74 | 2025-02-25 19:00 | long | $88,003 → $84,441 | 23h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 75 | 2025-02-27 00:00 | long | $84,721 → $81,292 | 25h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 76 | 2025-02-28 09:00 | long | $80,332 → $86,715 | 54h | +$213 | tp 8pct |
| 77 | 2025-03-04 02:00 | long | $83,910 → $90,577 | 32h | +$217 | tp 8pct |
| 78 | 2025-03-09 11:00 | long | $84,997 → $81,556 | 10h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 79 | 2025-03-10 01:00 | long | $81,733 → $78,424 | 16h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 80 | 2025-03-10 19:00 | long | $79,059 → $85,341 | 215h | +$217 | tp 8pct |
| 81 | 2025-03-28 11:00 | long | $85,244 → $81,793 | 30h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 82 | 2025-03-29 17:00 | long | $82,334 → $79,001 | 193h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 83 | 2025-04-07 01:00 | long | $79,141 → $75,937 | 5h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 84 | 2025-04-07 08:00 | long | $76,258 → $82,318 | 58h | +$215 | tp 8pct |
| 85 | 2025-04-16 01:00 | long | $83,625 → $90,270 | 156h | +$219 | tp 8pct |
| 86 | 2025-04-30 14:00 | long | $93,716 → $101,162 | 193h | +$223 | tp 8pct |
| 87 | 2025-05-15 08:00 | long | $102,268 → $110,394 | 159h | +$227 | tp 8pct |
| 88 | 2025-05-28 16:00 | long | $107,442 → $103,093 | 58h | −$123 | sl 4pct |
| 89 | 2025-05-31 03:00 | long | $103,695 → $99,497 | 539h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 90 | 2025-06-22 16:00 | long | $99,657 → $107,575 | 69h | +$227 | tp 8pct |
| 91 | 2025-07-04 17:00 | long | $107,899 → $116,472 | 148h | +$232 | tp 8pct |
| 92 | 2025-07-15 04:00 | long | $117,593 → $112,833 | 426h | −$125 | sl 4pct |
| 93 | 2025-08-14 14:00 | long | $118,843 → $114,032 | 120h | −$124 | sl 4pct |
| 94 | 2025-08-19 20:00 | long | $113,590 → $108,991 | 148h | −$122 | sl 4pct |
| 95 | 2025-08-26 01:00 | long | $109,915 → $112,553 | 720h | +$67 | force close horizon |
| 96 | 2025-09-25 14:00 | long | $111,530 → $120,392 | 172h | +$230 | tp 8pct |
| 97 | 2025-10-07 19:00 | long | $121,670 → $116,745 | 72h | −$124 | sl 4pct |
| 98 | 2025-10-11 04:00 | long | $112,973 → $108,400 | 131h | −$123 | sl 4pct |
| 99 | 2025-10-16 16:00 | long | $109,252 → $104,829 | 16h | −$122 | sl 4pct |
| 100 | 2025-10-17 11:00 | long | $105,681 → $114,079 | 227h | +$228 | tp 8pct |
| 101 | 2025-10-29 17:00 | long | $111,867 → $107,338 | 20h | −$123 | sl 4pct |
| 102 | 2025-11-03 11:00 | long | $107,798 → $103,434 | 27h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 103 | 2025-11-04 22:00 | long | $101,316 → $97,215 | 222h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 104 | 2025-11-14 08:00 | long | $97,381 → $93,439 | 61h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 105 | 2025-11-16 22:00 | long | $94,197 → $90,384 | 29h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 106 | 2025-11-18 07:00 | long | $90,500 → $86,837 | 58h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 107 | 2025-11-20 21:00 | long | $87,281 → $83,748 | 10h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 108 | 2025-11-21 12:00 | long | $83,284 → $89,902 | 125h | +$216 | tp 8pct |
| 109 | 2025-12-01 13:00 | long | $85,993 → $92,826 | 37h | +$220 | tp 8pct |
| 110 | 2025-12-05 15:00 | long | $90,451 → $86,789 | 240h | −$119 | sl 4pct |
| 111 | 2025-12-15 23:00 | long | $86,435 → $93,303 | 482h | +$222 | tp 8pct |
| 112 | 2026-01-06 18:00 | long | $92,042 → $88,316 | 340h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 113 | 2026-01-21 03:00 | long | $89,427 → $85,807 | 204h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 114 | 2026-01-29 21:00 | long | $84,527 → $81,106 | 4h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 115 | 2026-01-30 07:00 | long | $82,797 → $79,445 | 34h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 116 | 2026-02-01 02:00 | long | $78,886 → $75,693 | 21h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 117 | 2026-02-02 06:00 | long | $76,555 → $73,456 | 36h | −$114 | sl 4pct |
| 118 | 2026-02-03 19:00 | long | $74,927 → $71,894 | 27h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 119 | 2026-02-05 08:00 | long | $71,058 → $68,182 | 7h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 120 | 2026-02-06 01:00 | long | $65,701 → $70,922 | 16h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 121 | 2026-02-11 07:00 | long | $67,034 → $64,320 | 282h | −$112 | sl 4pct |
| 122 | 2026-02-23 06:00 | long | $65,748 → $63,087 | 22h | −$111 | sl 4pct |
| 123 | 2026-02-24 08:00 | long | $63,384 → $68,421 | 33h | +$208 | tp 8pct |
| 124 | 2026-02-28 07:00 | long | $63,819 → $68,891 | 56h | +$212 | tp 8pct |
| 125 | 2026-03-07 00:00 | long | $68,274 → $73,699 | 158h | +$216 | tp 8pct |
| 126 | 2026-03-18 17:00 | long | $71,593 → $68,695 | 78h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 127 | 2026-03-22 02:00 | long | $69,271 → $66,467 | 128h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 128 | 2026-03-27 23:00 | long | $66,408 → $71,685 | 264h | +$216 | tp 8pct |
| 129 | 2026-04-12 17:00 | long | $71,136 → $76,788 | 116h | +$220 | tp 8pct |
| 130 | 2026-04-19 10:00 | long | $75,224 → $81,201 | 379h | +$224 | tp 8pct |
| 131 | 2026-05-12 17:00 | long | $80,524 → $77,264 | 126h | −$121 | sl 4pct |
| 132 | 2026-05-18 04:00 | long | $77,041 → $73,922 | 239h | −$120 | sl 4pct |
| 133 | 2026-05-28 07:00 | long | $73,497 → $70,522 | 114h | −$118 | sl 4pct |
| 134 | 2026-06-02 02:00 | long | $70,865 → $67,997 | 12h | −$117 | sl 4pct |
| 135 | 2026-06-03 04:00 | long | $66,472 → $63,782 | 20h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 136 | 2026-06-04 02:00 | long | $63,230 → $60,671 | 35h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 137 | 2026-06-09 16:00 | long | $61,393 → $66,271 | 139h | +$215 | tp 8pct |
| 138 | 2026-06-17 12:00 | long | $65,040 → $62,407 | 27h | −$116 | sl 4pct |
| 139 | 2026-06-18 16:00 | long | $62,685 → $60,147 | 144h | −$115 | sl 4pct |
| 140 | 2026-06-24 20:00 | long | $60,958 → $58,490 | 17h | −$113 | sl 4pct |
| 141 | 2026-06-25 14:00 | long | $59,464 → $64,189 | 271h | +$212 | tp 8pct |
| 142 | 2026-07-13 07:00 | long | $62,979 → $63,923 | 122h | +$39 | force close horizon |
What the engine flagged
- ℹ 243 entry signals were skipped while a prior trade was open. Strategy fires more often than it can process at max_concurrent_positions: 1. Raising the cap would catch some of these — with the risk noted above.
Verdict
🟡 JUST MARKET BETA
Made +11% — but simply holding the asset made +113%. This is beta, not edge: it only "worked" because the market went up, and underperformed doing nothing.
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buy when RSI drops below 30, take profit 3%, stop loss 1.5%2
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