📉 LOSES MONEY
Does the RSI Overbought Short strategy actually work?
We tested it honestly on BTC 1h over 2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18, sized at 1% risk per trade on a $10,000 account. Here is exactly what happened — the real chart, every trade, no cherry-picking, no look-ahead.
“Short when RSI climbs above 70 — "the top is in". The mirror trade every mean-reversion course sells.”— what the internet tells you
The rule we tested
Enter short when RSI(14) crosses below 70, take profit +8%, stop −4%.
BTC · 1h
1% risk / trade
$10,000 start
2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18
0.20% round-trip cost
The honest result
Return on $10k
-18%
−$1,774 net
Buy & hold BTC
+113%
doing nothing beat it
Win rate
31%
129 trades
Profit factor
0.78
<1 = loses money
Avg win / loss
+$157 / −$90
per trade
Expectancy
−$14
avg per trade
Max drawdown
−25%
worst peak-to-trough
Worst losing streak
13
losses in a row
Every trade, on the chart 129 trades on BTC 1h — green = winner, red = loser
BTC price
Winning trade entry
Losing trade entry
Year by year strategy P&L vs how the asset itself moved
| Year | Strategy P&L | Win rate | Trades | BTC that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | −$935 | 17% | 18 | +41% |
| 2024 | −$998 | 28% | 57 | +120% |
| 2025 | +$127 | 39% | 36 | -7% |
| 2026 | +$33 | 39% | 18 | -27% |
Full trade log all 129 trades, nothing hidden
| # | Entry (UTC) | Side | Entry → Exit | Held | P&L | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023-07-23 19:00 | short | $30,065 → $27,674 | 597h | +$196 | tp 8pct |
| 2 | 2023-08-23 18:00 | short | $26,434 → $27,505 | 140h | −$106 | sl 4pct |
| 3 | 2023-08-30 00:00 | short | $27,598 → $25,403 | 65h | +$198 | tp 8pct |
| 4 | 2023-09-08 01:00 | short | $26,222 → $27,284 | 251h | −$107 | sl 4pct |
| 5 | 2023-09-18 17:00 | short | $26,736 → $27,819 | 317h | −$106 | sl 4pct |
| 6 | 2023-10-02 14:00 | short | $28,277 → $29,423 | 335h | −$105 | sl 4pct |
| 7 | 2023-10-17 00:00 | short | $28,252 → $29,397 | 75h | −$104 | sl 4pct |
| 8 | 2023-10-20 12:00 | short | $29,485 → $30,680 | 63h | −$102 | sl 4pct |
| 9 | 2023-10-23 06:00 | short | $30,637 → $31,878 | 16h | −$101 | sl 4pct |
| 10 | 2023-10-24 15:00 | short | $33,659 → $35,023 | 24h | −$100 | sl 4pct |
| 11 | 2023-10-29 19:00 | short | $34,563 → $35,963 | 79h | −$99 | sl 4pct |
| 12 | 2023-11-02 03:00 | short | $35,584 → $37,026 | 175h | −$98 | sl 4pct |
| 13 | 2023-11-09 10:00 | short | $36,767 → $38,257 | 361h | −$97 | sl 4pct |
| 14 | 2023-11-24 16:00 | short | $37,729 → $39,257 | 195h | −$96 | sl 4pct |
| 15 | 2023-12-02 22:00 | short | $39,345 → $40,939 | 27h | −$95 | sl 4pct |
| 16 | 2023-12-04 14:00 | short | $41,640 → $43,327 | 27h | −$94 | sl 4pct |
| 17 | 2023-12-06 03:00 | short | $43,744 → $40,265 | 119h | +$176 | tp 8pct |
| 18 | 2023-12-14 00:00 | short | $42,794 → $44,528 | 456h | −$95 | sl 4pct |
| 19 | 2024-01-02 12:00 | short | $45,343 → $41,736 | 24h | +$178 | tp 8pct |
| 20 | 2024-01-08 13:00 | short | $44,903 → $46,723 | 5h | −$96 | sl 4pct |
| 21 | 2024-01-09 01:00 | short | $46,566 → $48,453 | 61h | −$95 | sl 4pct |
| 22 | 2024-01-11 15:00 | short | $46,799 → $43,077 | 31h | +$178 | tp 8pct |
| 23 | 2024-01-26 13:00 | short | $40,980 → $42,641 | 39h | −$96 | sl 4pct |
| 24 | 2024-01-28 06:00 | short | $42,360 → $44,076 | 254h | −$95 | sl 4pct |
| 25 | 2024-02-08 06:00 | short | $44,424 → $46,224 | 20h | −$94 | sl 4pct |
| 26 | 2024-02-09 04:00 | short | $45,923 → $47,784 | 14h | −$93 | sl 4pct |
| 27 | 2024-02-09 22:00 | short | $47,233 → $49,147 | 65h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 28 | 2024-02-12 18:00 | short | $49,737 → $51,753 | 39h | −$91 | sl 4pct |
| 29 | 2024-02-14 15:00 | short | $51,596 → $53,687 | 289h | −$90 | sl 4pct |
| 30 | 2024-02-27 17:00 | short | $56,788 → $59,089 | 15h | −$89 | sl 4pct |
| 31 | 2024-02-28 18:00 | short | $61,148 → $63,626 | 12h | −$88 | sl 4pct |
| 32 | 2024-03-04 03:00 | short | $63,499 → $66,072 | 11h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 33 | 2024-03-05 04:00 | short | $67,416 → $62,054 | 15h | +$163 | tp 8pct |
| 34 | 2024-03-10 05:00 | short | $69,372 → $72,183 | 30h | −$88 | sl 4pct |
| 35 | 2024-03-11 13:00 | short | $71,558 → $65,866 | 92h | +$165 | tp 8pct |
| 36 | 2024-03-21 00:00 | short | $67,637 → $62,257 | 45h | +$168 | tp 8pct |
| 37 | 2024-03-25 00:00 | short | $66,572 → $69,269 | 14h | −$91 | sl 4pct |
| 38 | 2024-03-25 21:00 | short | $69,859 → $72,690 | 324h | −$90 | sl 4pct |
| 39 | 2024-04-08 14:00 | short | $71,751 → $66,044 | 100h | +$168 | tp 8pct |
| 40 | 2024-04-22 07:00 | short | $65,903 → $60,661 | 199h | +$171 | tp 8pct |
| 41 | 2024-05-04 06:00 | short | $62,906 → $65,455 | 50h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 42 | 2024-05-06 10:00 | short | $63,978 → $66,570 | 230h | −$91 | sl 4pct |
| 43 | 2024-05-16 12:00 | short | $65,937 → $68,609 | 101h | −$90 | sl 4pct |
| 44 | 2024-05-21 07:00 | short | $70,857 → $65,221 | 585h | +$169 | tp 8pct |
| 45 | 2024-06-20 11:00 | short | $66,123 → $60,864 | 94h | +$172 | tp 8pct |
| 46 | 2024-06-30 19:00 | short | $61,956 → $57,028 | 86h | +$176 | tp 8pct |
| 47 | 2024-07-06 18:00 | short | $57,730 → $60,069 | 178h | −$95 | sl 4pct |
| 48 | 2024-07-14 06:00 | short | $59,823 → $62,247 | 20h | −$94 | sl 4pct |
| 49 | 2024-07-15 11:00 | short | $62,407 → $64,936 | 13h | −$93 | sl 4pct |
| 50 | 2024-07-16 04:00 | short | $64,423 → $67,034 | 87h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 51 | 2024-07-19 23:00 | short | $66,599 → $69,297 | 182h | −$91 | sl 4pct |
| 52 | 2024-07-27 14:00 | short | $68,930 → $63,448 | 121h | +$170 | tp 8pct |
| 53 | 2024-08-08 18:00 | short | $59,270 → $61,672 | 4h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 54 | 2024-08-09 00:00 | short | $61,155 → $56,291 | 164h | +$172 | tp 8pct |
| 55 | 2024-08-20 08:00 | short | $60,702 → $63,161 | 82h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 56 | 2024-08-24 10:00 | short | $64,065 → $58,969 | 84h | +$173 | tp 8pct |
| 57 | 2024-09-09 23:00 | short | $56,986 → $59,295 | 88h | −$93 | sl 4pct |
| 58 | 2024-09-13 16:00 | short | $59,389 → $61,796 | 127h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 59 | 2024-09-19 01:00 | short | $61,944 → $64,454 | 98h | −$91 | sl 4pct |
| 60 | 2024-09-26 17:00 | short | $65,064 → $59,889 | 164h | +$171 | tp 8pct |
| 61 | 2024-10-06 16:00 | short | $62,535 → $65,068 | 187h | −$92 | sl 4pct |
| 62 | 2024-10-14 23:00 | short | $66,047 → $68,723 | 87h | −$91 | sl 4pct |
| 63 | 2024-10-20 23:00 | short | $68,999 → $71,795 | 206h | −$90 | sl 4pct |
| 64 | 2024-10-29 19:00 | short | $72,501 → $75,438 | 179h | −$89 | sl 4pct |
| 65 | 2024-11-06 07:00 | short | $73,404 → $76,378 | 13h | −$88 | sl 4pct |
| 66 | 2024-11-06 22:00 | short | $75,614 → $78,678 | 78h | −$88 | sl 4pct |
| 67 | 2024-11-10 19:00 | short | $79,760 → $82,992 | 20h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 68 | 2024-11-12 09:00 | short | $87,713 → $91,267 | 29h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 69 | 2024-11-13 19:00 | short | $90,174 → $93,828 | 143h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 70 | 2024-11-20 16:00 | short | $94,053 → $97,864 | 12h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 71 | 2024-11-21 12:00 | short | $97,313 → $101,257 | 326h | −$83 | sl 4pct |
| 72 | 2024-12-05 06:00 | short | $101,953 → $93,844 | 16h | +$156 | tp 8pct |
| 73 | 2024-12-11 17:00 | short | $99,721 → $103,762 | 102h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 74 | 2024-12-16 02:00 | short | $104,548 → $96,232 | 90h | +$157 | tp 8pct |
| 75 | 2024-12-24 19:00 | short | $97,491 → $101,442 | 308h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 76 | 2025-01-06 21:00 | short | $101,495 → $93,422 | 44h | +$158 | tp 8pct |
| 77 | 2025-01-14 10:00 | short | $96,607 → $100,522 | 34h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 78 | 2025-01-15 20:00 | short | $99,455 → $103,485 | 43h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 79 | 2025-01-17 17:00 | short | $104,055 → $108,271 | 61h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 80 | 2025-01-29 21:00 | short | $103,627 → $95,385 | 100h | +$157 | tp 8pct |
| 81 | 2025-02-03 20:00 | short | $100,979 → $92,948 | 506h | +$160 | tp 8pct |
| 82 | 2025-03-03 01:00 | short | $93,020 → $85,621 | 18h | +$163 | tp 8pct |
| 83 | 2025-03-06 06:00 | short | $91,849 → $84,544 | 78h | +$166 | tp 8pct |
| 84 | 2025-03-14 17:00 | short | $84,290 → $87,706 | 233h | −$89 | sl 4pct |
| 85 | 2025-03-24 12:00 | short | $87,256 → $80,316 | 318h | +$167 | tp 8pct |
| 86 | 2025-04-09 18:00 | short | $81,709 → $85,020 | 68h | −$90 | sl 4pct |
| 87 | 2025-04-12 16:00 | short | $84,580 → $88,007 | 214h | −$89 | sl 4pct |
| 88 | 2025-04-21 16:00 | short | $87,104 → $90,633 | 22h | −$88 | sl 4pct |
| 89 | 2025-04-23 10:00 | short | $93,635 → $97,430 | 197h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 90 | 2025-05-01 17:00 | short | $96,706 → $100,624 | 166h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 91 | 2025-05-09 03:00 | short | $102,359 → $106,507 | 236h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 92 | 2025-05-19 00:00 | short | $105,178 → $109,440 | 63h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 93 | 2025-05-21 15:00 | short | $108,887 → $104,218 | 720h | +$85 | force close horizon |
| 94 | 2025-06-24 00:00 | short | $105,037 → $109,293 | 208h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 95 | 2025-07-02 20:00 | short | $109,035 → $113,453 | 189h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 96 | 2025-07-11 15:00 | short | $116,850 → $121,585 | 60h | −$83 | sl 4pct |
| 97 | 2025-07-14 11:00 | short | $121,419 → $120,632 | 720h | +$11 | force close horizon |
| 98 | 2025-08-13 14:00 | short | $120,820 → $111,210 | 269h | +$156 | tp 8pct |
| 99 | 2025-09-05 08:00 | short | $112,536 → $117,096 | 282h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 100 | 2025-09-29 06:00 | short | $111,536 → $116,055 | 50h | −$83 | sl 4pct |
| 101 | 2025-10-01 12:00 | short | $116,294 → $121,006 | 31h | −$82 | sl 4pct |
| 102 | 2025-10-02 21:00 | short | $120,015 → $124,878 | 55h | −$81 | sl 4pct |
| 103 | 2025-10-05 08:00 | short | $124,489 → $114,587 | 132h | +$152 | tp 8pct |
| 104 | 2025-10-12 23:00 | short | $114,851 → $105,716 | 104h | +$155 | tp 8pct |
| 105 | 2025-10-19 19:00 | short | $108,798 → $113,206 | 44h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 106 | 2025-10-21 16:00 | short | $112,477 → $103,531 | 334h | +$157 | tp 8pct |
| 107 | 2025-11-09 17:00 | short | $103,548 → $95,312 | 115h | +$160 | tp 8pct |
| 108 | 2025-11-23 23:00 | short | $86,759 → $90,275 | 67h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 109 | 2025-11-26 19:00 | short | $89,882 → $93,524 | 154h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 110 | 2025-12-03 07:00 | short | $92,933 → $85,541 | 299h | +$159 | tp 8pct |
| 111 | 2025-12-17 15:00 | short | $87,142 → $90,673 | 385h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 112 | 2026-01-02 18:00 | short | $89,683 → $93,317 | 55h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 113 | 2026-01-05 04:00 | short | $92,515 → $96,264 | 210h | −$84 | sl 4pct |
| 114 | 2026-01-14 04:00 | short | $95,142 → $87,575 | 180h | +$158 | tp 8pct |
| 115 | 2026-02-13 19:00 | short | $68,864 → $63,387 | 248h | +$161 | tp 8pct |
| 116 | 2026-02-25 03:00 | short | $65,338 → $67,986 | 13h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 117 | 2026-02-25 22:00 | short | $68,365 → $71,135 | 154h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 118 | 2026-03-04 22:00 | short | $72,631 → $66,854 | 76h | +$160 | tp 8pct |
| 119 | 2026-03-13 11:00 | short | $72,158 → $75,082 | 85h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 120 | 2026-03-17 02:00 | short | $75,130 → $69,154 | 58h | +$162 | tp 8pct |
| 121 | 2026-03-23 15:00 | short | $70,057 → $72,896 | 415h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 122 | 2026-04-11 20:00 | short | $73,226 → $76,194 | 133h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 123 | 2026-04-17 17:00 | short | $77,429 → $80,567 | 395h | −$85 | sl 4pct |
| 124 | 2026-05-04 05:00 | short | $79,951 → $73,592 | 574h | +$160 | tp 8pct |
| 125 | 2026-06-07 09:00 | short | $62,477 → $65,008 | 180h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 126 | 2026-06-15 01:00 | short | $65,454 → $60,248 | 231h | +$161 | tp 8pct |
| 127 | 2026-07-01 22:00 | short | $60,425 → $62,873 | 46h | −$87 | sl 4pct |
| 128 | 2026-07-03 22:00 | short | $62,511 → $65,044 | 264h | −$86 | sl 4pct |
| 129 | 2026-07-15 01:00 | short | $64,616 → $63,987 | 80h | +$18 | force close horizon |
What the engine flagged
- ❌ NEGATIVE EDGE — profit factor 0.78 < 1. Strategy loses money.
- ℹ 274 entry signals were skipped while a prior trade was open. Strategy fires more often than it can process at max_concurrent_positions: 1. Raising the cap would catch some of these — with the risk noted above.
Verdict
📉 LOSES MONEY
Lost $1,774 of a $10,000 account.
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