🟡 JUST MARKET BETA
Does the Golden Cross strategy actually work?
We tested it honestly on BTC 4h over 2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18, sized at 1% risk per trade on a $10,000 account. Here is exactly what happened — the real chart, every trade, no cherry-picking, no look-ahead.
“Buy when price crosses above the 200 SMA — the "golden cross" every financial news site treats as a buy signal.”— what the internet tells you
The rule we tested
Go long when price closes above its 200-period SMA (4h), exit when it closes back below.
BTC · 4h
1% risk / trade
$10,000 start
2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18
0.20% round-trip cost
The honest result
Return on $10k
+1%
+$74 net
Buy & hold BTC
+114%
doing nothing beat it
Win rate
16%
87 trades
Profit factor
1.79
gross win / gross loss
Avg win / loss
+$12 / −$1
per trade
Expectancy
+$1
avg per trade
Max drawdown
−0%
worst peak-to-trough
Worst losing streak
16
losses in a row
Every trade, on the chart 87 trades on BTC 4h — green = winner, red = loser
BTC price
Winning trade entry
Losing trade entry
Year by year strategy P&L vs how the asset itself moved
| Year | Strategy P&L | Win rate | Trades | BTC that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | +$24 | 18% | 11 | +41% |
| 2024 | +$59 | 20% | 25 | +121% |
| 2025 | −$6 | 11% | 35 | -7% |
| 2026 | −$3 | 19% | 16 | -27% |
Full trade log all 87 trades, nothing hidden
| # | Entry (UTC) | Side | Entry → Exit | Held | P&L | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023-09-14 12:00 | long | $26,693 → $26,497 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 2 | 2023-09-15 00:00 | long | $26,615 → $26,402 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 3 | 2023-09-15 20:00 | long | $26,602 → $26,220 | 216h | −$2 | signal |
| 4 | 2023-09-25 16:00 | long | $26,328 → $26,249 | 12h | +$0 | signal |
| 5 | 2023-09-27 08:00 | long | $26,759 → $26,243 | 8h | −$2 | signal |
| 6 | 2023-09-27 20:00 | long | $26,373 → $26,758 | 328h | +$1 | signal |
| 7 | 2023-10-11 20:00 | long | $26,879 → $26,787 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 8 | 2023-10-13 04:00 | long | $26,874 → $26,797 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 9 | 2023-10-14 00:00 | long | $26,931 → $26,846 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 10 | 2023-10-14 12:00 | long | $26,943 → $26,839 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 11 | 2023-10-15 16:00 | long | $27,046 → $35,293 | 720h | +$30 | force close horizon |
| 12 | 2024-01-03 20:00 | long | $42,893 → $42,776 | 216h | +$0 | signal |
| 13 | 2024-01-29 16:00 | long | $43,003 → $42,604 | 40h | −$1 | signal |
| 14 | 2024-01-31 12:00 | long | $43,352 → $42,531 | 8h | −$2 | signal |
| 15 | 2024-02-01 16:00 | long | $43,223 → $42,802 | 60h | −$1 | signal |
| 16 | 2024-02-04 08:00 | long | $43,061 → $42,596 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 17 | 2024-02-05 04:00 | long | $43,069 → $42,596 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 18 | 2024-02-06 00:00 | long | $42,858 → $42,786 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 19 | 2024-02-06 12:00 | long | $43,247 → $42,769 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 20 | 2024-02-07 04:00 | long | $42,920 → $67,285 | 720h | +$57 | force close horizon |
| 21 | 2024-04-04 16:00 | long | $68,515 → $66,900 | 12h | −$2 | signal |
| 22 | 2024-04-05 12:00 | long | $68,248 → $67,356 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 23 | 2024-04-06 12:00 | long | $68,135 → $66,785 | 148h | −$2 | signal |
| 24 | 2024-05-15 12:00 | long | $64,707 → $66,849 | 644h | +$3 | signal |
| 25 | 2024-06-12 08:00 | long | $67,781 → $67,488 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 26 | 2024-06-12 20:00 | long | $68,275 → $67,408 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 27 | 2024-06-13 04:00 | long | $67,742 → $66,400 | 8h | −$2 | signal |
| 28 | 2024-07-15 00:00 | long | $62,644 → $62,580 | 448h | +$0 | signal |
| 29 | 2024-08-23 16:00 | long | $63,612 → $59,337 | 100h | −$7 | signal |
| 30 | 2024-09-13 12:00 | long | $59,666 → $58,518 | 60h | −$2 | signal |
| 31 | 2024-09-17 08:00 | long | $59,089 → $60,139 | 368h | +$2 | signal |
| 32 | 2024-10-02 20:00 | long | $60,648 → $60,977 | 164h | +$0 | signal |
| 33 | 2024-10-11 12:00 | long | $62,269 → $79,691 | 720h | +$28 | force close horizon |
| 34 | 2024-12-21 04:00 | long | $99,033 → $97,416 | 8h | −$2 | signal |
| 35 | 2024-12-24 20:00 | long | $98,678 → $97,951 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 36 | 2024-12-25 12:00 | long | $98,544 → $97,626 | 16h | −$1 | signal |
| 37 | 2025-01-03 16:00 | long | $98,604 → $98,091 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 38 | 2025-01-04 04:00 | long | $98,284 → $97,799 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 39 | 2025-01-05 04:00 | long | $98,277 → $97,559 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 40 | 2025-01-05 20:00 | long | $98,390 → $97,856 | 40h | −$1 | signal |
| 41 | 2025-01-15 12:00 | long | $99,005 → $99,108 | 420h | +$0 | signal |
| 42 | 2025-02-03 16:00 | long | $101,883 → $98,360 | 12h | −$4 | signal |
| 43 | 2025-03-24 08:00 | long | $87,690 → $86,425 | 16h | −$2 | signal |
| 44 | 2025-03-25 08:00 | long | $87,377 → $85,115 | 68h | −$3 | signal |
| 45 | 2025-04-01 12:00 | long | $85,293 → $84,462 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 46 | 2025-04-02 12:00 | long | $86,743 → $82,427 | 8h | −$5 | signal |
| 47 | 2025-04-11 16:00 | long | $83,868 → $82,892 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 48 | 2025-04-12 04:00 | long | $83,727 → $83,271 | 96h | −$1 | signal |
| 49 | 2025-04-16 08:00 | long | $84,047 → $103,570 | 720h | +$23 | force close horizon |
| 50 | 2025-06-06 12:00 | long | $105,088 → $104,115 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 51 | 2025-06-07 00:00 | long | $104,895 → $105,548 | 140h | +$1 | signal |
| 52 | 2025-06-13 20:00 | long | $106,076 → $105,133 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 53 | 2025-06-16 04:00 | long | $107,068 → $105,537 | 28h | −$2 | signal |
| 54 | 2025-06-24 20:00 | long | $106,102 → $105,290 | 164h | −$1 | signal |
| 55 | 2025-07-01 20:00 | long | $105,688 → $115,622 | 720h | +$9 | force close horizon |
| 56 | 2025-08-07 08:00 | long | $116,504 → $116,099 | 28h | +$0 | signal |
| 57 | 2025-08-08 16:00 | long | $116,425 → $116,348 | 28h | +$0 | signal |
| 58 | 2025-08-10 00:00 | long | $118,548 → $117,166 | 132h | −$1 | signal |
| 59 | 2025-08-16 12:00 | long | $117,687 → $117,269 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 60 | 2025-08-17 00:00 | long | $117,687 → $117,297 | 20h | +$0 | signal |
| 61 | 2025-08-22 20:00 | long | $116,958 → $115,472 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 62 | 2025-09-10 12:00 | long | $113,869 → $113,457 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 63 | 2025-09-10 20:00 | long | $113,947 → $112,402 | 272h | −$1 | signal |
| 64 | 2025-09-23 04:00 | long | $113,082 → $112,763 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 65 | 2025-09-24 08:00 | long | $113,034 → $112,420 | 16h | −$1 | signal |
| 66 | 2025-09-29 12:00 | long | $113,819 → $112,676 | 272h | −$1 | signal |
| 67 | 2025-10-26 20:00 | long | $114,556 → $113,802 | 28h | −$1 | signal |
| 68 | 2025-10-28 04:00 | long | $114,193 → $113,563 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 69 | 2025-12-09 16:00 | long | $93,809 → $92,590 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 70 | 2025-12-22 08:00 | long | $89,946 → $87,958 | 8h | −$2 | signal |
| 71 | 2025-12-29 00:00 | long | $90,145 → $87,482 | 8h | −$3 | signal |
| 72 | 2026-01-02 08:00 | long | $89,513 → $89,636 | 440h | +$0 | signal |
| 73 | 2026-03-04 08:00 | long | $71,116 → $68,427 | 52h | −$4 | signal |
| 74 | 2026-03-09 12:00 | long | $68,854 → $68,836 | 296h | +$0 | signal |
| 75 | 2026-03-22 00:00 | long | $69,339 → $68,850 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 76 | 2026-03-23 08:00 | long | $70,130 → $69,021 | 76h | −$2 | signal |
| 77 | 2026-04-06 08:00 | long | $69,619 → $68,773 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 78 | 2026-04-07 20:00 | long | $71,931 → $79,935 | 720h | +$11 | force close horizon |
| 79 | 2026-05-17 04:00 | long | $78,182 → $77,964 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 80 | 2026-05-17 16:00 | long | $78,409 → $77,378 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 81 | 2026-07-04 16:00 | long | $63,295 → $62,707 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 82 | 2026-07-05 04:00 | long | $63,021 → $62,594 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 83 | 2026-07-05 12:00 | long | $62,741 → $62,417 | 20h | −$1 | signal |
| 84 | 2026-07-06 12:00 | long | $63,556 → $62,247 | 44h | −$2 | signal |
| 85 | 2026-07-09 04:00 | long | $63,009 → $62,554 | 104h | −$1 | signal |
| 86 | 2026-07-14 08:00 | long | $62,844 → $62,760 | 68h | +$0 | signal |
| 87 | 2026-07-17 08:00 | long | $63,298 → $63,942 | 20h | +$1 | force close horizon |
What the engine flagged
- ❌ OVERFIT — test WR (12%) is 63% of train WR (18%). DO NOT DEPLOY.
Verdict
🟡 JUST MARKET BETA
Made +1% — but simply holding the asset made +114%. This is beta, not edge: it only "worked" because the market went up, and underperformed doing nothing.
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buy when RSI drops below 30, take profit 3%, stop loss 1.5%2
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