📉 LOSES MONEY
Does the Death Cross Short strategy actually work?
We tested it honestly on BTC 4h over 2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18, sized at 1% risk per trade on a $10,000 account. Here is exactly what happened — the real chart, every trade, no cherry-picking, no look-ahead.
“Short the "death cross" — price falling below the 200 SMA is supposedly the start of a crash.”— what the internet tells you
The rule we tested
Go short when price closes below its 200-period SMA (4h), cover when it closes back above.
BTC · 4h
1% risk / trade
$10,000 start
2023-07-19 → 2026-07-18
0.20% round-trip cost
The honest result
Return on $10k
-0%
−$3 net
Buy & hold BTC
+114%
doing nothing beat it
Win rate
10%
86 trades
Profit factor
0.97
<1 = loses money
Avg win / loss
+$10 / −$1
per trade
Expectancy
+$0
avg per trade
Max drawdown
−0%
worst peak-to-trough
Worst losing streak
22
losses in a row
Every trade, on the chart 86 trades on BTC 4h — green = winner, red = loser
BTC price
Winning trade entry
Losing trade entry
Year by year strategy P&L vs how the asset itself moved
| Year | Strategy P&L | Win rate | Trades | BTC that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | −$7 | 0% | 10 | +41% |
| 2024 | −$12 | 8% | 26 | +121% |
| 2025 | −$8 | 14% | 35 | -7% |
| 2026 | +$24 | 13% | 15 | -27% |
Full trade log all 86 trades, nothing hidden
| # | Entry (UTC) | Side | Entry → Exit | Held | P&L | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023-09-14 20:00 | short | $26,497 → $26,615 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 2 | 2023-09-15 08:00 | short | $26,402 → $26,602 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 3 | 2023-09-24 20:00 | short | $26,220 → $26,328 | 20h | −$1 | signal |
| 4 | 2023-09-26 04:00 | short | $26,249 → $26,759 | 28h | −$2 | signal |
| 5 | 2023-09-27 16:00 | short | $26,243 → $26,373 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 6 | 2023-10-11 12:00 | short | $26,758 → $26,879 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 7 | 2023-10-12 04:00 | short | $26,787 → $26,874 | 24h | +$0 | signal |
| 8 | 2023-10-13 08:00 | short | $26,797 → $26,931 | 16h | −$1 | signal |
| 9 | 2023-10-14 04:00 | short | $26,846 → $26,943 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 10 | 2023-10-14 16:00 | short | $26,839 → $27,046 | 24h | −$1 | signal |
| 11 | 2024-01-03 16:00 | short | $42,595 → $42,893 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 12 | 2024-01-12 20:00 | short | $42,776 → $43,003 | 404h | −$1 | signal |
| 13 | 2024-01-31 08:00 | short | $42,604 → $43,352 | 4h | −$2 | signal |
| 14 | 2024-01-31 20:00 | short | $42,531 → $43,223 | 20h | −$2 | signal |
| 15 | 2024-02-04 04:00 | short | $42,802 → $43,061 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 16 | 2024-02-04 16:00 | short | $42,596 → $43,069 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 17 | 2024-02-05 12:00 | short | $42,596 → $42,858 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 18 | 2024-02-06 08:00 | short | $42,786 → $43,247 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 19 | 2024-02-07 00:00 | short | $42,769 → $42,920 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 20 | 2024-04-02 00:00 | short | $66,698 → $68,515 | 64h | −$3 | signal |
| 21 | 2024-04-05 04:00 | short | $66,900 → $68,248 | 8h | −$2 | signal |
| 22 | 2024-04-05 16:00 | short | $67,356 → $68,135 | 20h | −$1 | signal |
| 23 | 2024-04-12 16:00 | short | $66,785 → $61,411 | 720h | +$8 | force close horizon |
| 24 | 2024-06-11 08:00 | short | $66,849 → $67,781 | 24h | −$1 | signal |
| 25 | 2024-06-12 16:00 | short | $67,488 → $68,275 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 26 | 2024-06-13 00:00 | short | $67,408 → $67,742 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 27 | 2024-06-13 12:00 | short | $66,400 → $58,842 | 720h | +$11 | force close horizon |
| 28 | 2024-08-02 16:00 | short | $62,580 → $63,612 | 504h | −$2 | signal |
| 29 | 2024-08-27 20:00 | short | $59,337 → $59,666 | 400h | −$1 | signal |
| 30 | 2024-09-16 00:00 | short | $58,518 → $59,089 | 32h | −$1 | signal |
| 31 | 2024-10-02 16:00 | short | $60,139 → $60,648 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 32 | 2024-10-09 16:00 | short | $60,977 → $62,269 | 44h | −$2 | signal |
| 33 | 2024-12-19 16:00 | short | $97,106 → $99,033 | 36h | −$2 | signal |
| 34 | 2024-12-21 12:00 | short | $97,416 → $98,678 | 80h | −$1 | signal |
| 35 | 2024-12-25 00:00 | short | $97,951 → $98,544 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 36 | 2024-12-26 04:00 | short | $97,626 → $98,604 | 204h | −$1 | signal |
| 37 | 2025-01-03 20:00 | short | $98,091 → $98,284 | 8h | +$0 | signal |
| 38 | 2025-01-04 08:00 | short | $97,799 → $98,277 | 20h | −$1 | signal |
| 39 | 2025-01-05 08:00 | short | $97,559 → $98,390 | 12h | −$1 | signal |
| 40 | 2025-01-07 12:00 | short | $97,856 → $99,005 | 192h | −$1 | signal |
| 41 | 2025-02-02 00:00 | short | $99,108 → $101,883 | 40h | −$3 | signal |
| 42 | 2025-02-04 04:00 | short | $98,360 → $91,370 | 720h | +$7 | force close horizon |
| 43 | 2025-03-25 00:00 | short | $86,425 → $87,377 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 44 | 2025-03-28 04:00 | short | $85,115 → $85,293 | 104h | +$0 | signal |
| 45 | 2025-04-02 00:00 | short | $84,462 → $86,743 | 12h | −$3 | signal |
| 46 | 2025-04-02 20:00 | short | $82,427 → $83,868 | 212h | −$2 | signal |
| 47 | 2025-04-12 00:00 | short | $82,892 → $83,727 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 48 | 2025-04-16 04:00 | short | $83,271 → $84,047 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 49 | 2025-06-05 16:00 | short | $101,819 → $105,088 | 20h | −$3 | signal |
| 50 | 2025-06-06 16:00 | short | $104,115 → $104,895 | 8h | −$1 | signal |
| 51 | 2025-06-12 20:00 | short | $105,548 → $106,076 | 24h | −$1 | signal |
| 52 | 2025-06-14 00:00 | short | $105,133 → $107,068 | 52h | −$2 | signal |
| 53 | 2025-06-17 08:00 | short | $105,537 → $106,102 | 180h | −$1 | signal |
| 54 | 2025-07-01 16:00 | short | $105,290 → $105,688 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 55 | 2025-08-01 16:00 | short | $113,227 → $116,504 | 136h | −$3 | signal |
| 56 | 2025-08-08 12:00 | short | $116,099 → $116,425 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 57 | 2025-08-09 20:00 | short | $116,348 → $118,548 | 4h | −$2 | signal |
| 58 | 2025-08-15 12:00 | short | $117,166 → $117,687 | 24h | −$1 | signal |
| 59 | 2025-08-16 20:00 | short | $117,269 → $117,687 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 60 | 2025-08-17 20:00 | short | $117,297 → $116,958 | 120h | +$0 | signal |
| 61 | 2025-08-23 00:00 | short | $115,472 → $113,869 | 444h | +$1 | signal |
| 62 | 2025-09-10 16:00 | short | $113,457 → $113,947 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 63 | 2025-09-22 04:00 | short | $112,402 → $113,082 | 24h | −$1 | signal |
| 64 | 2025-09-23 12:00 | short | $112,763 → $113,034 | 20h | +$0 | signal |
| 65 | 2025-09-25 00:00 | short | $112,420 → $113,819 | 108h | −$1 | signal |
| 66 | 2025-10-10 20:00 | short | $112,676 → $114,556 | 384h | −$2 | signal |
| 67 | 2025-10-28 00:00 | short | $113,802 → $114,193 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 68 | 2025-10-28 16:00 | short | $113,563 → $91,530 | 720h | +$19 | force close horizon |
| 69 | 2025-12-09 20:00 | short | $92,590 → $89,946 | 300h | +$3 | signal |
| 70 | 2025-12-22 16:00 | short | $87,958 → $90,145 | 152h | −$3 | signal |
| 71 | 2025-12-29 08:00 | short | $87,482 → $89,513 | 96h | −$2 | signal |
| 72 | 2026-01-20 16:00 | short | $89,636 → $67,062 | 720h | +$25 | force close horizon |
| 73 | 2026-03-06 12:00 | short | $68,427 → $68,854 | 72h | −$1 | signal |
| 74 | 2026-03-21 20:00 | short | $68,836 → $69,339 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 75 | 2026-03-22 04:00 | short | $68,850 → $70,130 | 28h | −$2 | signal |
| 76 | 2026-03-26 12:00 | short | $69,021 → $69,619 | 260h | −$1 | signal |
| 77 | 2026-04-06 20:00 | short | $68,773 → $71,931 | 24h | −$5 | signal |
| 78 | 2026-05-17 00:00 | short | $77,946 → $78,182 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 79 | 2026-05-17 12:00 | short | $77,964 → $78,409 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 80 | 2026-05-17 20:00 | short | $77,378 → $65,673 | 720h | +$15 | force close horizon |
| 81 | 2026-07-05 00:00 | short | $62,707 → $63,021 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
| 82 | 2026-07-05 08:00 | short | $62,594 → $62,741 | 4h | +$0 | signal |
| 83 | 2026-07-06 08:00 | short | $62,417 → $63,556 | 4h | −$2 | signal |
| 84 | 2026-07-08 08:00 | short | $62,247 → $63,009 | 20h | −$1 | signal |
| 85 | 2026-07-13 12:00 | short | $62,554 → $62,844 | 20h | −$1 | signal |
| 86 | 2026-07-17 04:00 | short | $62,760 → $63,298 | 4h | −$1 | signal |
What the engine flagged
- ❌ NEGATIVE EDGE — profit factor 0.97 < 1. Strategy loses money.
Verdict
📉 LOSES MONEY
Lost $3 of a $10,000 account.
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