How trading numbers lie — measured on our own data.
No listicles, no recycled "top 5 indicators". Every article here is a forensic of something we measured, broke, or debunked ourselves — with the real numbers.
Survivorship bias in memecoin data: what 475,000 alerts taught us
Memecoin "win rates" are the most survivorship-poisoned numbers in trading. We log every alert our scanner fires — including the tokens that die in seconds — and the honest base rates are brutal: 5.2% ever double, and the median rug hits zero before a human can click.
Paper trading vs backtest: why profitable backtests lose money live
We ran 42 strategy configurations on live data in parallel with their backtests. The backtests smiled; the honest live accounting showed -$485K in ten days. Here is exactly where the gap comes from — and the one case where simulation matched reality to within 0.1%.
9 ways your crypto backtest is lying to you
Every inflated backtest we have ever audited — including our own — lied in one of these nine ways. Each one comes with the real numbers it distorted and the check that catches it.
We debunked our own backtests — and rebuilt everything
We were quoting a 45% moonshot rate to our users. The honest number was 6.8%. Here is the full forensic of how look-ahead bias and survivorship poisoned our backtests, and the five checks that would have caught it.
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