// reality check
8 famous TradingView strategies,
honestly backtested.
On TradingView they show gorgeous equity curves. We compiled each one into our engine and ran it on 3 years of real ETH/SOL data — trading costs applied, no look-ahead, positions force-closed. All 8 lost money. Profit factor below 1.0 across the board.
| Strategy | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Max DD | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bollinger Band Bouncemean reversion | 6,224 | 32.5% | 0.86 | 13.4% | 📉 LOSES |
| RSI(2) — Connorsmean reversion | 3,527 | 32.1% | 0.84 | 8.9% | 📉 LOSES |
| Turtle Breakout + ADXtrend | 833 | 39.7% | 0.80 | 3.8% | 📉 LOSES |
| MACD Histogram Zero-Crosstrend | 1,083 | 38.6% | 0.77 | 5.4% | 📉 LOSES |
| Breakout Short + ADXtrend | 1,028 | 40.6% | 0.75 | 4.9% | 📉 LOSES |
| Bollinger Breakoutbreakout | 2,104 | 39.5% | 0.65 | 11.3% | 📉 LOSES |
| Turtle Breakout (SOL)trend | 828 | 38.2% | 0.57 | 7.4% | 📉 LOSES |
| RSI(30) Bouncemean reversion | 533 | 37.9% | 0.46 | 5.7% | 📉 LOSES |
Profit factor = gross profit ÷ gross loss. Below 1.0 means the
strategy loses money after costs. The win rates look fine (32–41%) — but the losers are
bigger than the winners, exactly what a cost-free, look-ahead-friendly TradingView
backtest hides. This isn't a knock on TradingView; it's what happens to any
strategy once you test it honestly.
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